Our Statistician


William M. Briggs

"Statistician to the Stars"


Our calculator has been compiled by leading US statician William M.Briggs who boasts an unrivalled resume including roles as:

Professor of Statistics at Cornell University

Research Scientist for the New York Methodist Hospital.


View his full resume here

William M. Briggs, Statistician to the Stars!

Reverse Mortgage DrawDown Clock


Responsible Reverse Mortgages have teamed up with leading US statician William M.Briggs to bring you our all new Reverse Mortgage DrawDown Clock.

This clock provides up-to-date statistics on how many reverse mortgages are being taken out across the US right now and also tells us how much money has been released from these mortgages.



Reverse Mortgage DrawDown Clock

How many reverse mortgages are currently being taken out in the USA?


 

How much have people across the country received in tax free cash from their home?


 

Install our clock on your website

We have made our clock available for you to put on your websites. To install our clock download it and follow the instructions in the read me.

How does the Reverse Mortgage Clock work?


The 2010 Reverse Mortgage Number clock was started at a base of 573,149 calculated from the count of these mortgages from 1990. From there, a forecast for the number of reverse mortgages in the coming year is produced. This forecast was constrained by an industry-standard estimate, which provided a ceiling on the number of mortgages.

An auto-regressive, integrated, moving average time series model was fitted to previous yearly mortgages. This ARIMA model allowed for the inclusion of seasonal fluctuations in the mortgage number. The variance of the residuals of this model did not indicate a generalized extension to the model was necessary (i.e., a GARCH model was not necessary). The ARIMA model had to be fit with the mortgage constraint as a parameter.

The next step was to calculate the time since 1 January midnight until now. This provided a necessary input to the model function. Part of this function, for example, indicates the adjustment for seasonality. The number produced is then added to the base and displayed on the clock. Calculations are done once per second.

The Mortgage Dollars clock is produced in exactly the same way; of course, fitting a new ARIMA model for the dollar amount. Here, the same constraint for mortgage number must be met. In addition, an estimate of median mortgage dollar amount is also produced. Once these are in hand, the clock display is produced in a similar manner.



Data Used In Building The Clock


Data was taken from the HECM Endorsement Summary Reports (HUD 2009) to find both the number of loans taken out since the HUD sponsoring of Home Equity Conversion Mortgages along with the Average Maximum Claim Value since 1990 when sponsoring began.

Further data was taken from:

An Actuarial Analysis of FHA Home Equity Conversion Mortgage Loans In The Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund Fiscal Year 2009' (HUD 2009a) to garner the official government estimates of the future growth of the HUD sponsored reverse mortgage industry.

One table, in particular, provided great insight into the government's actuarial predictions for the market growth in this sector.(HUD 2009b)

References

HUD 2009a. Total HECM Cases Endorsed For Insurance by Fiscal Year of Endorsement Plus Selected Loan and Borrower Characteristics . [internet] : (Published 2009) Available at: http://hud.gov/offices/hsg/comp/rpts/hecm/hecm0809.xls
[Accessed 10 January 2010].

HUD 2009b An Actuarial Analysis of FHA Home Equity Conversion Mortgage Loans In The Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund Fiscal Year 2009' . IBM [internet] New York: IBM (Published 2009) Available at: http://portal.hud.gov/portal/page/portal/HUD/federal_housing_administration/docs/hecm2009.pdf
[Accessed 10 January 2010].

Contact Us| Privacy Policy


Clark Street | NYC | 11201 | USA


646 374 1305


Any information contained herein is a personal opinion of the author and should not be considered to be advice of any kind.